Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faces defeat if election not rigged, say Iranian experts

Ian Black in Tehran
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 11 June 2009

Iranians go to the polls tomorrow to elect a president after an acrimonious and volatile election campaign that has polarised the country and unleashed mass opposition to the hardline Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In the absence of reliable independent opinion polls, experts predicted today that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the moderate "green" candidate, would probably beat the controversial incumbent so long as the result was not rigged.

Saeed Lalyaz, a respected political commentator, said he believed Mousavi now commanded the support of 55-60% across the country and warned of a possible crackdown on the opposition if Ahmadinejad were re-elected.

"I worry about the impact of any announcement that Ahmadinejad wins in the first round," said Lalyaz. "Whoever wins, these people on the streets will not go home easily. If Ahmadinejad is president for a second time I worry about another Tiananmen Square experience."

Ominously, as three weeks of often passionate campaigning drew to a close, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRG) warned that any attempt at a popular "revolution" would be crushed.

Underlining the unprecedented scale of public interest in the election, it was reported that more than 10m text messages had been sent on Tuesday alone, apparently reflecting intense efforts to get the vote out and avoid the risk of mass abstentions.

The regime is also encouraging mass participation. "The people of Iran will choose someone who will resist the bullying of those who are arrogant and defend Iran's interest in the world," said a statement from the Basij militia.

The candidate who takes more than 50% becomes president automatically. If none does tomorrow, a second run-off round will be held next Friday. Two other candidates, reformist cleric Mehdi Karoubi and Mohsen Rezaei, another conservative, would drop out if that happened.

Ahmadinejad was reportedly losing support to Rezaei, a former IRG commander, and elements of the military were said to be backing Mousavi, who has pledged to increase personal freedoms. A victory for the former prime minister could improve relations with the west, though big policy changes are unlikely.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/11/iran-president-election-mahmoud-ahmadinejad